Philosophy
What we believe
Our beliefs start with humility. They draw from systems engineering for first principles, data science for modeling discipline, and finance for the logic of compounding. Together, they produce a way of thinking that finance alone doesn't.
01
Hypotheses start with first principles
- A hypothesis starts by observing and noticing patterns.
- The market already prices obvious implications. We must go beyond the obvious.
- We build a hypothesis forward: why / how it would work, and when will it persist?
- We name how we'd know it has stopped working (the falsification).
- We may still turn out to be wrong, but the falsification helps us exit.
02
Thinking harder is not thinking better
- Sometimes, more analysis doesn't improve an investment idea.
- If an idea is flawed, more analysis may not help.
- Techniques like back-testing, simulation can surface assumptions and tail risks better.
- These aren't substitutes for judgment - they can help identify misplaced confidence.
- A good process works even if (and especially if) the manager is having a bad day.
03
Judgment doesn't calibrate on its own
- We use judgment when data is ambiguous and the pressure is real.
- A good process helps recall and apply lessons learned under pressure.
- Like serious chess players who study their own games, we review the trade lifecycle.
- At the next decision, the process surfaces the right lessons from our own experience.
- Afflint's approach helps refine lived human experience into wisdom.
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